Home Prices or Mortgage Rates? South Florida's Answer

Last updated October 1, 2026

Published by Gia Freer, Broker of Record, PBP Real Estate, LLC · Florida broker license BK689801

Mostly prices. Between January 2019 and August 2026, about seven of every ten dollars added to the monthly payment on a South Florida median house came from the higher price, and three from the higher mortgage rate. In Palm Beach County the median house went from $340,000 to $650,000 while the 30-year fixed rate went from 4.57% to 6.76% (Mortgage News Daily, monthly average), and the principal and interest with 20% down went from $1,390 to $3,376. The same split holds, within a few points, for houses and for condominiums in every one of the five counties.

Is it home prices or mortgage rates that made South Florida harder to buy?

Prices, by a wide margin, in every county and for both property types. A monthly payment moves for two reasons: the loan is bigger because the home costs more, or each dollar borrowed costs more because the rate is higher. We took the median sale price for each county in January 2019 and in August 2026, computed the principal and interest on 80% of it at that month's average 30-year fixed rate, and split the difference between the two causes. Because the answer depends slightly on which change you apply first, we average both orders.

Would lower mortgage rates bring payments back to 2019 levels?

No. In Palm Beach and Miami-Dade, a 0% mortgage on today's median house would still cost more each month than the January 2019 median did at 4.57%. The Palm Beach median house at $650,000 with 20% down is a $520,000 loan; spread over 30 years with no interest at all, that is $1,444 a month, against $1,390 for principal and interest on the $340,000 median in January 2019. In Broward, Martin and St. Lucie the rate would have to fall to 0.03% to 0.05%. Condominiums would need a rate of 0.23% to 0.91%. Put the other way, at the August 2026 rate the median house would have to sell for 57% to 60% less to carry the January 2019 payment. Neither is a forecast; both show how much of the gap the rate alone cannot close.

How much have South Florida prices risen after inflation?

The median house is up 37% to 46% in real terms since January 2019, after consumer prices rose 33%. Miami-Dade leads at +46.0% and Palm Beach follows at +43.7%; Broward, Martin and St. Lucie are each near +38%. Condominium and townhouse medians rose less: +20.9% in Broward, +28.8% in Palm Beach and +33.3% in Miami-Dade after inflation. In nominal dollars, the house medians rose 82% to 94%. Incomes, insurance and taxes are not in these figures; they are covered on our cost of living pages.

Are fewer South Florida homes selling?

Yes in the three large counties: closed house sales from January to August 2026 were -15.6% against the same months of 2019 in Palm Beach, -23.0% in Broward and -17.9% in Miami-Dade. Martin (-5.8%) and St. Lucie (-4.4%) are close to their 2019 pace. Condominium closings fell further in Broward (-33.4%) than anywhere else. These counts describe how many sales closed, not why; they sit beside the payment figures as context, not as proof that one caused the other.

What does this mean if you are selling this year?

A 10% lower price does about as much for a buyer's monthly payment as a mortgage rate one full point lower. At the 7.60% Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed rate of September 30, 2026, the highest reading of 2026 so far, a 10% lower price and a rate one point lower change a buyer's principal and interest by about the same amount. The difference is that a seller sets the price, and nobody sets the rate. Buyers shop by monthly payment, and the payment on a South Florida median house is set mostly by its price.

None of this says what a particular home is worth. It describes the market every listing is priced into: buyers who measure a home by what it costs each month, at a rate that is a national number nobody in South Florida controls. Today's rates and their recent moves are on our mortgage rates page; the same payment series by month, county and property type is in the price versus payment section of each county market report.

How we counted

Prices and sales. Median sale price and closed sales for single-family houses and for condominiums and townhouses, kept separate, from the Florida Realtors monthly county market detail for Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, Martin and St. Lucie counties; base month January 2019, latest month August 2026. Rates. Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed rate index, a daily national average, averaged over each calendar month: 4.57% in January 2019 and 6.76% in August 2026; latest daily reading 7.60% on September 30, 2026. Payment. Principal and interest on 80% of the median, 30-year fixed. Property tax, insurance, association fees and mortgage insurance are excluded, so actual monthly costs are higher. Split. The increase is divided into a price part and a rate part by computing each change both ways (price first and rate first) and averaging the two. Inflation. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, all items, not seasonally adjusted (Bureau of Labor Statistics), January 2019 to August 2026. These are market statistics, not an opinion of value for any property and not a forecast. AI assists the research and the assembly; a licensed broker authors every figure; no automated estimate. Rates are national averages, not a quote or offer of credit.

Source: Florida Realtors county market detail; Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed rate index (mortgagenewsdaily.com); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U; analysis by PBP Real Estate, as of October 1, 2026. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. PBP Real Estate, LLC is a South Florida brokerage and housing-data publisher.