Fannie and Freddie Stocks Are Falling. What It Means for Your South Florida Home
Key takeaways
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares fell more than 23% and 25% in September 2026 because investors lowered the odds of privatization. That is a shareholder story, not a mortgage-availability story.
- The number that matters to sellers moved too: the Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed rate went from 6.89% on September 1 to 7.57% on October 2, after 7.60% on September 30, the highest reading since November 2023.
- On the Palm Beach County median house, that rise added $240 a month to principal and interest, the same effect on a buyer as a price about 7% higher.
- Buyers have not pulled back yet. Across the five counties, contracts signed on houses from September 9 to October 2 ran 7.8% above the same dates of 2025, and on condominiums and townhouses 14.9% above.
- One exception: Palm Beach County houses. Contracts ran 4.8% above last year in the month before rates climbed and 6.5% below last year after.
The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock slide is about who will own the two companies, not about whether you can get a mortgage. What does affect your sale is the rate: the 30-year fixed rose from 6.89% to 7.57% in one month, which raised a buyer's monthly payment by about 7%. So far South Florida buyers have kept signing contracts at last year's pace or better, with Palm Beach County houses the one place where contracts slipped below last year after rates climbed. Sales close weeks after contracts are signed, so the full effect of a September rate jump shows up in October and November figures, which we update every day.
Why are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares falling?
Because investors now think the two companies are less likely to be released from government control soon. Fannie Mae shares fell more than 23% in September 2026 and Freddie Mac shares more than 25% (Yahoo Finance, September 28, 2026). On September 27, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut its price target on both stocks to $3.50, from $6.25 for Fannie Mae and $6.50 for Freddie Mac, and lowered its estimate of the chance of privatization to 30% from 50%. KBW also warned that if the Treasury's preferred shares are converted to common stock, existing shareholders would be diluted (National Mortgage News, September 28, 2026). Charts of the two stocks circulating on social media show a classic "head and shoulders" pattern, which traders read as a sign of further declines. That is a forecast about share prices.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have operated under federal conservatorship, run by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, since September 2008. They buy mortgages from lenders, package them into mortgage bonds and guarantee those bonds; the U.S. Treasury stands behind the two companies through its preferred-stock agreements. None of that depends on the share price. A shareholder can lose money while the companies keep buying loans every day.
What actually moved mortgage rates in September?
Mostly the 10-year Treasury yield, with a smaller push from a wider gap between mortgage rates and Treasuries. From September 1 to October 1, 2026, the Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed rate rose 0.65 points, from 6.89% to 7.54%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.45 points over the same days, from 4.79% to 5.24%. The remaining 0.20 points came from the gap between the two widening, from 2.10 to 2.30 points. That matches KBW's reading that the main driver of higher mortgage rates this year has been the 10-year Treasury, not spreads. On October 2 the 30-year fixed stood at 7.57%, up from 6.36% a year earlier.
The gap between mortgage rates and Treasuries is where Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac matter most to a homeowner. When investors want more to hold mortgage bonds, the gap widens and rates rise faster than Treasuries. How that gap has behaved over the longer run is covered in mortgage rates and the Treasury spread.
How much did the rate rise add to a South Florida mortgage payment?
About 7% in one month, in every county and for both property types. On the August 2026 median house in Palm Beach County, $650,000, principal and interest with 20% down was $3,421 a month at the September 1 rate of 6.89% and $3,661 at the October 2 rate of 7.57%. That is $240 more a month. For a buyer who shops by monthly payment, it has the same effect as the price rising about 7% while the rate stayed put.
| County | Houses: median | At 6.89% | At 7.57% | Added per month | Condos/TH: median | At 6.89% | At 7.57% | Added per month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Beach | $650,000 | $3,421 | $3,661 | +$240 | $300,000 | $1,579 | $1,690 | +$111 |
| Broward | $650,000 | $3,421 | $3,661 | +$240 | $257,500 | $1,355 | $1,450 | +$95 |
| Miami-Dade | $680,000 | $3,579 | $3,830 | +$251 | $408,000 | $2,147 | $2,298 | +$151 |
| Martin | $656,900 | $3,458 | $3,700 | +$242 | $277,500 | $1,461 | $1,563 | +$102 |
| St. Lucie | $402,500 | $2,119 | $2,267 | +$148 | $320,000 | $1,684 | $1,802 | +$118 |
| Medians: Florida Realtors monthly county market detail, August 2026. Principal and interest only; taxes, insurance, association fees and mortgage insurance excluded. Illustrations of the arithmetic, not an opinion of value for any home or an offer of credit. PBP Real Estate is a brokerage, not a lender. | ||||||||
Have South Florida buyers stopped signing contracts?
Not yet. From September 9 to October 2, 2026, buyers signed contracts on 2,997 houses in the five counties, 7.8% more than on the same dates of 2025, and on 2,796 condominiums and townhouses, 14.9% more. In the month before the climb, August 10 to September 8, contracts ran 4.1% above last year for houses and 11.9% above for condominiums and townhouses, so the pace held after rates rose. Many of September's buyers locked or were approved at lower rates weeks earlier, so a pullback, if one comes, shows up with a lag.
Palm Beach County houses are the exception. Contracts there ran 4.8% above last year from August 10 to September 8, then 6.5% below last year from September 9 to October 2: 800 contracts against 856. Last year Palm Beach house contracts picked up in mid-September; this year they held at about 220 to 240 a week from mid-August on.
| County | Houses before | vs 2025 | Houses after | vs 2025 | Condos/TH before | vs 2025 | Condos/TH after | vs 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Beach | 1,022 | +4.8% | 800 | -6.5% | 988 | +13.4% | 793 | +11.5% |
| Broward | 1,047 | +1.4% | 835 | +3.3% | 1,019 | +6.3% | 866 | +6.5% |
| Miami-Dade | 929 | +6.2% | 852 | +21.4% | 1,105 | +13.7% | 941 | +18.7% |
| Martin | 141 | +16.5% | 129 | +29.0% | 99 | +52.3% | 96 | +74.5% |
| St. Lucie | 445 | +1.4% | 381 | +21.3% | 103 | +8.4% | 100 | +61.3% |
| All five counties | 3,584 | +4.1% | 2,997 | +7.8% | 3,314 | +11.9% | 2,796 | +14.9% |
| BeachesMLS listings permitted for internet display, counted by the date each went under contract; contracts that later fell apart and returned to the market are not counted, so recent 2026 counts may include deals that later fail, while the 2025 counts have already lost theirs. Martin and St. Lucie condominium and townhouse counts are small. | ||||||||
Sellers did not have to cut more to get there, either. Of the houses that went under contract after September 9, 41% had cut their asking price at least once beforehand, the same share as in the month before.
What are South Florida homes selling for compared with the asking price?
In September 2026 the median house in the five counties sold 4.7% below its original asking price and 2.5% below its final asking price. Condominiums and townhouses sold 6.8% below the original and 4.1% below the final asking price. Most of these sales were negotiated in August, before rates climbed; the contracts signed since September 9 will start closing in October.
| County | Houses vs original ask | Houses vs final ask | Houses sold | Condos/TH vs original ask | Condos/TH vs final ask | Condos/TH sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Beach | −5.1% | −3.2% | 940 | −6.9% | −4.4% | 864 |
| Broward | −4.3% | −2.3% | 894 | −7.6% | −4.2% | 807 |
| Miami-Dade | −4.8% | −2.7% | 760 | −6.1% | −4.0% | 866 |
| Martin | −5.6% | −3.2% | 148 | −8.4% | −4.7% | 91 |
| St. Lucie | −4.3% | −1.4% | 416 | −5.6% | −2.9% | 107 |
| All five counties | −4.7% | −2.5% | 3,158 | −6.8% | −4.1% | 2,735 |
| BeachesMLS closed residential sales permitted for internet display; median of each sale's price divided by its asking price, as of October 1, 2026. The full monthly series is in the sale price vs asking price section of each county market report. | ||||||
Supply is the other side of it. Houses have about four to six months of inventory in every county; condominiums and townhouses in Broward and Miami-Dade have more than twelve. Where supply is deep, buyers facing a higher payment have more alternatives to choose from.
| County | Houses: months | Houses for sale | Condos/TH: months | Condos/TH for sale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Beach | 4.1 | 3,856 | 7.3 | 6,285 |
| Broward | 4.7 | 4,208 | 12.2 | 9,896 |
| Miami-Dade | 5.9 | 4,510 | 13.9 | 12,046 |
| Martin | 4.2 | 621 | 5.5 | 509 |
| St. Lucie | 5.3 | 2,217 | 6.5 | 692 |
What should a South Florida seller do with this?
Price for the payment your buyer faces today, not the one they faced on Labor Day. A buyer approved in August for a monthly payment can afford about 7% less house at today's rate. A seller cannot change the rate, but a seller does set the price, and in our price-or-rate analysis a 10% lower price did about as much for a buyer's payment as a rate one full point lower. Watch the 30-year rate, not the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac share price; today's rate and its recent moves are on our mortgage rates page, and contracts, inventory and sale price versus asking price are refreshed daily in each county market report.
None of this says what a particular home is worth. It describes the market every listing is priced into right now.
How we counted
Rates. Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed rate index, a daily national average, September 1 to October 2, 2026; 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield, FRED series DGS10, latest October 1, 2026. The rate split compares September 1 with October 1, the latest day both series cover.
Payment. Principal and interest on 80% of the August 2026 county median sale price (Florida Realtors monthly county market detail), 30-year fixed.
Contracts. BeachesMLS residential listings in Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, Martin and St. Lucie counties, permitted for internet display, now under contract or sold, counted by the date each went under contract (Eastern time), pulled October 3, 2026 through PBP Real Estate's direct data feed. Houses and condominiums or townhouses are kept separate and assigned by the tax legal description: a legal description that names a condominium makes the property a condominium whatever the listing type. Contracts that fell apart and returned to the market are not counted, so recent 2026 figures can include deals that later fail; the 2025 figures have already lost theirs.
Asking price. Share with a price cut compares each listing's final asking price with its original asking price. Stocks. Share-price moves, price targets and the KBW privatization estimate are as reported by Yahoo Finance and National Mortgage News on September 28, 2026, and were not independently verified by PBP Real Estate.
These are market statistics, not an opinion of value for any property, not investment advice and not a forecast. AI assists the research and the assembly; a licensed broker authors every figure; no automated estimate. Rates are national averages, not a quote or offer of credit.
Source: BeachesMLS listings permitted for internet display through PBP Real Estate's data feed, as of October 2, 2026; Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed rate index (mortgagenewsdaily.com); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED DGS10; Florida Realtors county market detail; Yahoo Finance and National Mortgage News, September 28, 2026; Federal Housing Finance Agency. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. PBP Real Estate, LLC is a South Florida brokerage and housing-data publisher.
Questions sellers and buyers ask about Fannie, Freddie and rates
Does the drop in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock mean mortgages are at risk?
No. The shares fell because investors now see a lower chance that the two companies leave government conservatorship soon; Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut its odds of privatization to 30% from 50% and its price target on both stocks to $3.50 (reported September 28, 2026). Both companies have operated under federal conservatorship since September 2008, keep buying and guaranteeing mortgages, and are backed by the U.S. Treasury through preferred-stock agreements. A falling share price is a loss for shareholders, not a sign that home loans are drying up.
Why did mortgage rates rise in September 2026?
Mostly because the 10-year Treasury yield rose. From September 1 to October 1, 2026, the Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed rate rose 0.65 points (6.89% to 7.54%) and the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.45 points (4.79% to 5.24%, FRED DGS10). The other 0.20 points came from a wider gap between the two.
How much did the September rate rise add to a South Florida mortgage payment?
About 7%. On the August 2026 median house in Palm Beach County ($650,000), principal and interest with 20% down went from $3,421 a month at 6.89% to $3,661 at 7.57%, an extra $240 a month or $2,880 a year. For a buyer, that is the same as the price going up about 7%.
For sellers
Pricing a home is a skill. Start with the current competition and recent closed sales.
43.6% of active single-family house listings in South Florida (five counties) have a recorded asking price below their original list price.
The data comes from the segment and recorded fields available in PBP Real Estate's BeachesMLS feed, as of the date shown. Gia Freer, Broker of Record, turns comparable sales and current competition into one written pricing opinion for your home, with the reasoning, before it goes live.
No website estimate, no automated number: a written opinion of value prepared by hand, within one business day.
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