Florida Home Prices Are Trailing the US. Is South Florida?
Key takeaways
- Over the past year Florida home prices grew more slowly than the national average: +1.4% against +3.0% (Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025, FHFA all-transactions index).
- South Florida houses are still well ahead since 2020. Case-Shiller Miami (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) is up 78.8% since March 2020 against 54.0% for the US, seasonally adjusted, and set a record in July 2026.
- Florida's slowdown is concentrated on the Gulf Coast: Tampa is 4.3% below its January 2024 peak and Cape Coral-Fort Myers 10.3% below its Q2 2023 peak.
- South Florida's lead is intact, but its pace is mixed. Over the past year FHFA puts Palm Beach County (+3.7%) ahead of the US. Broward (+0.8%), Miami-Dade (+1.3%) and the Treasure Coast (−0.6%) are behind it.
- Houses and condominiums are two different markets. September 2026 closings across the five counties: houses +5.6% per square foot from a year earlier, condominiums and townhouses +0.5%.
Florida home prices have grown more slowly than the national average over the past year, and the gap Florida opened after 2021 is closing. South Florida is not where that is happening. Houses in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties are up 79% since March 2020 against 54% nationally, and the Case-Shiller Miami index set a record in July 2026. The softness is on the Gulf Coast and in condominiums. That is why a statewide chart can say "Florida is lagging" while a house seller in Boca Raton or Fort Lauderdale is selling into a market that is still at its high. The real question for a South Florida seller is the year-over-year pace, which is mixed by county.
Are Florida home prices really falling behind the rest of the country?
Over the past year, yes. Over the whole period since the pandemic, not yet. The Federal Housing Finance Agency's all-transactions house price index for Florida rose 1.4% from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026. The national index rose 3.0%. Since the first quarter of 2020, Florida is still ahead, 70.0% against 60.5%, but the lead has been shrinking since 2024 as Florida flattened and the rest of the country kept rising.
A price-per-square-foot chart circulating on social media this week went further and showed Florida slightly behind the US since March 2020. That chart counts every property type statewide in one line. Condominiums are a large part of Florida sales: in our five counties, condominiums and townhouses were 47% of September 2026 closings. And condominium values have been falling since early 2024: the Zillow Home Value Index for tri-county condominiums is 13.8% below its January 2024 peak. Mixing them with houses pulls the statewide line down. Measures that track houses on their own, such as Case-Shiller, still show South Florida well ahead.
Is South Florida behind the US?
No. South Florida houses have outgained the national market by about 25 percentage points since March 2020. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Miami index covers houses in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. Seasonally adjusted, it is up 78.8% from March 2020 to July 2026. The national index is up 54.0%. Miami set a new record in July 2026. Tampa, the only other Florida metro Case-Shiller tracks, is up 60.9%, ahead of the US but far behind Miami, and is 4.3% below its January 2024 peak.
Where in Florida are prices falling behind?
Mainly on the Gulf Coast. The FHFA index for the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro is 10.3% below its Q2 2023 peak. North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota is 4.6% below its Q3 2023 peak. Both have gained less than the national index since 2020. Every South Florida metro division has gained more than the US since 2020, and every one is within about 1% of its own peak.
| Area | Since Q1 2020 | Past year | From peak |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | +60.5% | +3.0% | at its peak |
| Florida (statewide) | +70.0% | +1.4% | −0.03% (peak Q1 2026) |
| West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach (Palm Beach County) | +83.9% | +3.7% | −1.1% (peak Q1 2026) |
| Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Sunrise (Broward County) | +71.4% | +0.8% | −0.4% (peak Q4 2025) |
| Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall (Miami-Dade County) | +90.8% | +1.3% | −0.7% (peak Q1 2026) |
| Port St. Lucie (Martin and St. Lucie counties) | +71.1% | −0.6% | −0.8% (peak Q4 2024) |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford | +65.3% | +0.8% | −0.5% (peak Q1 2026) |
| Jacksonville | +63.7% | +0.1% | −1.3% (peak Q1 2026) |
| North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota | +61.6% | −0.5% | −4.6% (peak Q3 2023) |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers | +53.2% | −0.9% | −10.3% (peak Q2 2023) |
| FHFA all-transactions index via FRED (series USSTHPI, FLSTHPI and ATNHPIUS metro series), not seasonally adjusted, latest Q2 2026, retrieved October 3, 2026. Covers single-family houses with mortgages bought or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. It includes refinance appraisals, which is why it can differ from Case-Shiller. | |||
Is South Florida's lead over the US still growing?
Not everywhere. The lead built since 2020 is intact, but over the past year only part of South Florida has kept pace with the US. On the FHFA measure, the West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach division (Palm Beach County) rose 3.7%, ahead of the national 3.0%. Fort Lauderdale (Broward) rose 0.8% and Miami-Dade 1.3%, while the Port St. Lucie metro (Martin and St. Lucie counties) slipped 0.6%. Case-Shiller, which updates monthly and is more current, puts the three-county Miami metro at 3.5% over the year to July 2026 against 1.9% nationally. The two measures disagree on whether South Florida is still pulling ahead of the country. Neither shows South Florida house prices falling.
What do South Florida closed sales show this September?
Houses are up from a year ago, and condominiums are flat. Across the five counties, the median price per square foot of houses that closed in September 2026 was $350, up 5.6% from $332 in September 2025. For condominiums and townhouses it was $263, +0.5% from a year earlier. Palm Beach houses led at +7.9%. St. Lucie houses (−2.0%) and Broward condominiums and townhouses (−4.8%) were lower than a year ago.
| County | Houses Sep 2025 | Houses Sep 2026 | Change | Houses sold | Condos/TH Sep 2025 | Condos/TH Sep 2026 | Change | Condos/TH sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Beach | $334 | $360 | +7.9% | 957 | $233 | $242 | +3.6% | 886 |
| Broward | $342 | $362 | +6.0% | 908 | $240 | $228 | −4.8% | 835 |
| Miami-Dade | $403 | $410 | +1.8% | 768 | $351 | $350 | −0.3% | 871 |
| Martin | $297 | $301 | +1.2% | 146 | $198 | $200 | +0.9% | 92 |
| St. Lucie | $224 | $219 | −2.0% | 422 | $198 | $204 | +2.8% | 107 |
| All five counties | $332 | $350 | +5.6% | 3,201 | $262 | $263 | +0.5% | 2,791 |
| PBP Real Estate analysis of BeachesMLS closed residential sales permitted for internet display, as of October 3, 2026. September 2026 is a first read and late-reported closings will still be added. A single month of closings moves with the mix of homes sold. Read it next to the indices above, not in place of them. | ||||||||
What are South Florida homes selling for compared with the asking price?
In September 2026 the median house in the five counties sold 4.8% below its original asking price and 2.5% below its final asking price. Condominiums and townhouses sold 6.8% below the original and 4.1% below the final asking price. A year earlier, houses sold 5.7% below their original asking price. Those gaps are where a slowing market shows first, before any price index moves.
| County | Houses vs original ask | Houses vs final ask | Houses sold | Houses vs original ask, Sep 2025 | Condos/TH vs original ask | Condos/TH vs final ask | Condos/TH sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Beach | −5.2% | −3.2% | 956 | −6.7% | −6.9% | −4.4% | 882 |
| Broward | −4.3% | −2.3% | 912 | −5.4% | −7.5% | −4.2% | 835 |
| Miami-Dade | −4.9% | −2.7% | 775 | −5.3% | −6.2% | −4.0% | 881 |
| Martin | −5.6% | −3.2% | 149 | −6.7% | −7.9% | −4.6% | 95 |
| St. Lucie | −4.3% | −1.3% | 424 | −4.5% | −5.6% | −2.9% | 108 |
| All five counties | −4.8% | −2.5% | 3,216 | −5.7% | −6.8% | −4.1% | 2,801 |
| BeachesMLS closed residential sales permitted for internet display. Each figure is the median of each sale's price divided by its asking price, as of October 2, 2026. The monthly series is in the sale price vs asking price section of each county market report. | |||||||
What does this mean if you are selling in South Florida?
Price from your county and your property type, not from a statewide headline. A house in Palm Beach County is selling into a market at its high. A Broward condominium is selling into one where prices are lower than a year ago. A statewide chart blends both, plus the Gulf Coast, into one line. Buyers already know which market they are shopping in. A seller who prices from the headline either leaves money on the table or sits on the market while the buyers move on.
Where the longer cycle stands is on our South Florida housing cycle page, refreshed with the July 2026 Case-Shiller reading. Inventory, contracts and sale price versus asking price for each county are refreshed daily in the county market reports. For how payments have changed with mortgage rates, see home prices or mortgage rates. None of this says what a particular home is worth. It describes the market every listing is priced into right now.
How we counted
Case-Shiller. S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for the Miami and Tampa metros and the U.S. national index, monthly, through July 2026, retrieved from FRED on October 3, 2026. The change since March 2020 uses the seasonally adjusted series (MIXRSA, TPXRSA, CSUSHPISA). Year-over-year changes use the unadjusted series (MIXRNSA, TPXRNSA, CSUSHPINSA), which is how S&P reports them. Case-Shiller tracks repeat sales of single-family houses and excludes condominiums. Its Miami metro covers Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.
FHFA. Federal Housing Finance Agency all-transactions house price index, quarterly, through Q2 2026, for the United States, Florida and the metro areas listed. Martin and St. Lucie counties make up the Port St. Lucie metro. Peaks are the highest reading since the first quarter of 2020.
Zillow. Zillow Home Value Index, condominium tier, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro, smoothed and seasonally adjusted, through August 2026.
MLS figures. BeachesMLS residential closings in Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, Martin and St. Lucie counties, permitted for internet display, pulled through PBP Real Estate's direct data feed on October 3, 2026. Houses and condominiums or townhouses are assigned by the tax legal description: a legal description that names a condominium makes the property a condominium, whatever the listing type. Price per square foot uses recorded living area of at least 300 square feet. A county figure needs at least 30 sales in both months.
These are market statistics, not an opinion of value for any property and not a forecast. AI assists the research and the assembly; a licensed broker authors every figure; no automated estimate.
Source: S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index, via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); Zillow Home Value Index; BeachesMLS listings permitted for internet display through PBP Real Estate's data feed, as of October 3, 2026. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. PBP Real Estate, LLC is a South Florida brokerage and housing-data publisher.
Questions sellers ask about Florida and South Florida home prices
Are Florida home prices underperforming the rest of the country?
Over the past year, yes. The Federal Housing Finance Agency's all-transactions index for Florida rose 1.4% from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, against 3.0% for the United States. Since the start of 2020, Florida is still ahead, 70.0% against 60.5%, but the lead is narrowing. The weakness is concentrated on the Gulf Coast: Cape Coral-Fort Myers is 10.3% below its Q2 2023 peak.
Is South Florida behind the US in home price growth?
Not since 2020. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Miami index, which covers houses in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, is up 78.8% from March 2020 to July 2026, seasonally adjusted, against 54.0% for the national index, and it set a record in July 2026. Over the past twelve months the pace is mixed: Case-Shiller Miami rose 3.5% against 1.9% nationally, while FHFA shows Palm Beach County ahead of the US and Broward, Miami-Dade and the Treasure Coast behind it.
Are South Florida condo prices falling?
Condominium and townhouse prices are flat to lower while houses are rising. In September 2026, the median price per square foot of closed condominiums and townhouses across the five counties was +0.5% from September 2025, against +5.6% for houses. Broward condominiums and townhouses were -4.8% per square foot. Statewide charts that mix condominiums with houses understate how differently the two markets are moving.
For sellers
Pricing a home is a skill. Start with the current competition and recent closed sales.
43.6% of active single-family house listings in South Florida (five counties) have a recorded asking price below their original list price.
The data comes from the segment and recorded fields available in PBP Real Estate's BeachesMLS feed, as of the date shown. Gia Freer, Broker of Record, turns comparable sales and current competition into one written pricing opinion for your home, with the reasoning, before it goes live.
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